Vikings vs. Lions: Week 7 NFL Picks & Game Predictions

Jasons 2019 NFL picks Album through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals

Imagine if we told you that the Minnesota Vikings were the fourth-best staff from the NFL? Hey, dont look at us: Football Outsiders have Minnesota ranked No. 4 at DVOA (No. 5 offense, No. 6 defense, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins doesnt hold water. Hes No. 8 overall in passing DVOA, three spots better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.

Speaking of statistics, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) could have some betting significance as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). But these NFC North teams are rewarding thus far. We may get more value from thebelow today that the entire has moved out of 44 to as high as 46 about the NFL likelihood board.
Before we break down our choices, lets make sure were on the Ideal track by looking at the projections:

FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –2
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 complete

As we suspected. If you go with the crew of Nate Silver, there is gain margin to utilize for the spread, which is normal for the NFL game. Jeff Sagarins numbers are somewhat more bullish on Minnesota; were quoting his eigenvector distribute, but his recent propagate for the Vikes is 2.94, that still gets us near this 2-point margin we are searching for. Note that we are very near the magic number 3.

Naturally, if were serious about investing, we will need to jump on these opening lines whenever they are in our favor. The Vikings started prior to the sharps gobbled up them — but just in $58 a soda , in accordance with the expanded consensus reports at the press. Small margin bet.
That line proceed to the complete is quite interesting. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points a game annually to 22.4, and theunder is 49-43 (53.3 percent) round the league, so auto-betting theover to your NFL selections does not hold water right now — unless you are convinced therell be some regression to the expression, possibly from the kicking game.

The matchup on the ground things toward a lower scoring match. The Lions position No. 14 total in DVOA, but just No. 21 on crime in contrast to No. 12 on protection (and moment on specific teams). Then you have all that running across the Vikings dotheyre fourth in efforts this season.
When it comes to this total, however we are still looking at a small window between the projections and the actual odds. Lets follow the sharps, put Minnesota in our selections for a quantity, and as always, may the prolate spheroid function together with you.

Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) in 5Dimes

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