BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to receive my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is by far the safest play in the board this week and she also has 100+ stage upside. She’s a lock within my cash matches this week and that I actually don’t really see how she loses. I think a submission would be Moras‘ best opportunity but she is not capable of getting the fight to the floor, so that I see her becoming dominated on the feet until the ref steps in. She’s by far my favorite play at the $9k range and she is a -750 on the gambling line. I like playing it safer in money games and I think she’s a safe win this week.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is an easy one for me this week and he’ll be the chalk of the week. I will continue to be obese on Merab though. His style is precisely what we want on DraftKings. He has a nonstop speed and he shoots for takedowns very often. He has 22 landed takedowns in his first 3 UFC fights and that is his very best path to success in this matchup as well. Even with two losses on his album out of those 3 fights, he still averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This is not my GPP drama of the week since I know he is going to win, I only know IF he wins that he will score highly, and he should easily reach value on an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog drama of this week — Donald’Cowboy‘ Cerrone — $7,800
I must pick Cowboy as the dog of the week. His struggles are always action packed and the winner of the fight will definitely be about the first-place lineup. Particularly if it is Cowboy. He always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to use here. I don’t see a circumstance where he wins and doesn’t end up about the $25k lineup. I will be overweight on Cowboy this week, however this really is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in a one of my lineups, then you will see Iaquinta there. I’m heavier on the Cowboy side though and I believe he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of the week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be quite surprised to see Theodorou about the 1st location lineup this week. I’d be surprised to see him get 10x his $8k cost and that’s why I will have zero lineups together with him this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins earlier that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just not good for DraftKings. He is going to need to knock Brunson out whether he’s going to score highly and he isn’t a power puncher. I believe you are better off taking Elias from TKO on the betting line at +870. I don’t see any reason to spend in him this week in GPPs because he doesn’t have the ceiling we would like to win that large $25k. I believe he is fine in cash games as a 65-point win wouldn’t kill us . But he is an easy fade of this week for me this Saturday.
Thanks for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 71-45 to get +233.79un (+$23,379) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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